Is peace possible in Ukraine?

Carilyn Pointer - Conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion last year continues with no clear winner in sight. Recently, the leaders of France and China came together to appeal for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. While peace is certainly a good goal, is it possible in this conflict, and why bring peace up now? These questions can be answered by understanding the capacity for this conflict to expand beyond the current region. The conflict is larger than a boundary dispute between two countries, it represents many actors and ideals which gives it potential to expand in scale. This explains why other countries are closely involved, and why peace seems so appealing.

The concept of scale defines the geographic extent of the political actions we are looking at. We can think of scale starting at the individual level and increasing slowly in size until it reaches a global level. The individual level consists of the soldiers, citizens, and the general populations of Ukraine and Russia. The political action taken by Russia to invade, has impacted the average citizen’s everyday experience with the economy, personal safety, and way of life. Since the conflict began as a clash between countries, the national level was an important scale immediately. However, it took some time and momentum for the conflict to expand to the global scale. First, other countries became involved by imposing sanctions on Russia as a way to aid Ukraine. As time has gone on, more countries are becoming directly and indirectly involved which has expanded the conflict to the global level. Most worryingly, there is potential for the war to go nuclear. The higher the stakes of this war get, the more it makes the idea of peace more enticing. France and China are most likely feeling the pressure that comes with the threat of nuclear war which is why they are now asking for a cease-fire. As the representative from China stated, “Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear war must not be fought.” While the threat of nuclear war is certainly powerful it is unlikely that neither the Ukraine nor Russia will be willing to come to the table to talk peace, because neither country wants to lose the ground they have fought for.

With the complexity of this conflict, it is important to note that scales at all levels are connected and political acts often take place at more than one scale. Fully understanding the intricacy of scales, can provide additional insight as we recognize that each actor also must consider the how their decision will affect the individual, their nation, and the rest of the globe.