In Ukraine, a stalling counteroffensive spells future troubles

Jonah Carlson - Much Western hope for the war in Ukraine has rested upon the counteroffensive that began in July, which aimed to recapture territory lost to the Russians in Ukraine’s southeastern regions. However, progress on that counteroffensive has slowed to a near halt. How has that effected morale, both in Ukraine and in the West? A New York Times article by Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Lauren Leatherby helps enlighten the situation.

While the expectations for the counteroffensive were great, the results have been frankly so-so: the pair of authors report that as of September 20^th, the Ukrainian forces had barely penetrated the Russian forces and still had dozens of miles to near the coast of the Sea of Azov. Meanwhile, Ukrainian cities on the path of the front have been flattened, riddled with the remnants of missiles and other shelling. While the Ukrainians obviously experience the most difficulties, the demoralizing state of progress has choked the West’s ideological power as well. The Biden administration especially has promoted a “democracy vs. autocracy” framework and claim democracy will not only prevail ideologically, but on the battlefield as well. What happens when it doesn’t, or at least can’t manage to right now? It seems the result is declining morale, and a reduced willingness in the West – especially in the United States – to eagerly send both military and economic aid.

Thus, it seems that weakening ideological power could hamper what’s most needed on the battlefield: material power. Ukraine won’t be able to break Russia’s lines without further ammunition, missiles, and other supplies. While Europe has stepped up to supply more recently, the United States remains a significant supplier of military aid. If Congressional willingness to supply the counteroffensive and further action in Ukraine, the results on the battlefield could be tangibly startling.

_{Photo source. Office of U.S. House Speaker, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.}