China and India are reevaluating their relationship with Russia

Anna Johnson - As the war in Ukraine rages on, developments along international fronts may be just as influential on the war’s outcome as those within Ukraine. Since sanctions from Western nations have crippled Russia’s economy, China and India have been critical partners in sustaining Russian industry. Both China and India had avoided condemning the conflict, even abstaining from United Nations votes criticizing Russia’s actions in Ukraine. But in a surprise reversal of rhetoric, both India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and China’s leader Xi Jinping, have expressed their concerns about Russia’s tactics and doubts about the viability of the conflict.

When Russia first invaded Ukraine, every state had to reevaluate its relationship with Russia, Ukraine, and every other major institution or state involved in the conflict. These calculations are changes to their geopolitical code. Geopolitical codes determine how a country positions itself in the global neighborhood - how it interacts with its allies and its enemies, and how it presents itself to the rest of the world. China and India didn’t condemn Russia’s invasion, but they also didn’t join the fight. They saw the potential for economic gains by sustaining their relationship with Russia, despite international condemnation of the invasion. In light of the recent targeting of civilian areas, both countries have begun to put some distance between themselves and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their geopolitical calculations had finally reached a point where the losses in international standing by supporting Russia began to outweigh the economic gains they had retained. China issued a statement asserting its support for “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a curious position to take considering its strained relationship with Taiwan, and India’s Narendra Modi had a similar message, telling President Putin at a regional summit that “today’s era is not of war.” 

After considering the international response to the war in Ukraine, China and India reevaluated their relational power and decided distancing themselves from Russia would constitute a net gain in their international position. This reevaluation is based on a shift not only in their relational power but also in Russia’s relational power. The recent military success of Ukraine, particularly in the regions which Russia recently illegally annexed, has decreased Russia's power relative to both Ukraine and its allies. This loss of relational power is one of the factors China and India would have taken into account before taking steps to distance themselves from Russia. As the conflict continues to develop, every state must constantly reevaluate its geopolitical code and make adjustments to its policies and diplomacy to reflect its perception of international power relations.